Stuart_Armstrong comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 23 September 2009 02:54PM

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Comment author: Jonathan_Graehl 23 September 2009 09:20:15PM 0 points [-]

SIA: Given the fact that you exist, you should (other things equal) favor hypotheses according to which many observers exist over hypotheses on which few observers exist.

"Other things equal" is a huge obstacle for me. Without formalizing "other things equal", this is a piece of advice, not a theorem to be proved. I accept moving from A->F, but I don't see how you've proved SIA in general.

How do I go about obtaining a probability distribution over all possible universes conditioned on nothing?

How do I get a distribution over universes conditioned on "my" existence? And what do I mean by "me" in universes other than this one?

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 24 September 2009 10:13:20AM 0 points [-]

How do I go about obtaining a probability distribution over all possible universes conditioned on nothing?

I don't need to. I just need to show that if we do get such a distribution (over possible universes, or over some such subset), then SIA update these probabilities. If we can talk, in anyway, about the relative likelyhood of universe Y versus J, then SIA has a role to play.