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RobinHanson comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong
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Correct. On SIA, you start out certain that humanity will continue forever due to SIA, and then update on the extremely startling fact that you're in 2009, leaving you with the mere surface facts of the matter. If you start out with your reference class only in 2009 - a rather nontimeless state of affairs - then you end up in the same place as after the update.
Yes this is exactly right.