Stuart_Armstrong comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong

18 Post author: Stuart_Armstrong 23 September 2009 02:54PM

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Comment author: Unknowns 26 September 2009 09:11:58PM 0 points [-]

No. But this is not because these observers are told they will be killed, but because their death does not depend on a coin flip, but is part of the rules. We could suppose that they are rooms with green doors, and after the situation has been explained to them, they know they are in rooms with green doors. But the other observers, whether they are to be killed or not, know that this depends on the coin flip, and they do not know the color of their door, except that it is not green.

Comment author: Stuart_Armstrong 27 September 2009 05:25:52PM *  0 points [-]

I think we've reached the limit of productive argument; the SIA, and the negation of the SIA, are both logically coherent (they are essentially just different priors on your subjective experience of being alive). So I won't be able to convince you, if I haven't so far. And I haven't been convinced.

But do consider the oddity of your position - you claim that if you were told you would survive, told the rules of the set-up, and then the executioner said to you "you know those people who were killed - who never shared the current subjective experience that you have now, and who are dead - well, before they died, I told them/didn't tell them..." then your probability estimate of your current state would change depending on what he told these dead people.

But you similarly claim that if the executioner said the same thing about the extra observers, then your probability estimate would not change, whatever he said to them.