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casebash comments on Avoiding doomsday: a "proof" of the self-indication assumption - Less Wrong
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Then put a situation C' between C and D, in which people who are to be killed will be informed about the situation just before being killed (the survivors are still only told after the fact).
Then how does telling these people something just before putting them to death change anything for the survivors?
The manner in C' depends on your reference class. If your reference class is everyone, then it remains 99%. If your reference class is survivors, then it becomes 50%.
Which shows how odd and arbitrary reference classes are.
I don't think it is arbitrary. I responded to that argument in the comment chain here and still agree with that. (I am the same person as user Unknowns but changed my username some time ago.)