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Johnicholas comments on The Scylla of Error and the Charybdis of Paralysis - Less Wrong
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I'd like to code your proposed strategy up and measure it by simulations, but I can't quite figure out what it is. Does your strategy start with default-treating someone for fungus, or with waiting? Does it switch to treating an allergy on the first suggestive evidence for allergy, or does it wait for conclusive proof?