The odds of winning the lottery are ordinarily a billion to one. But now the branch in >which you win has your "measure", your "amount of experience", temporarily >multiplied by a trillion. So with the brief expenditure of a little extra computing power, >you can subjectively win the lottery - be reasonably sure that when next you open >your eyes, you will see a computer screen flashing "You won!"

As I see it, the odds of being any one of those trillion "me"s in 5 seconds is 10^21 to one(one trillion times one billion). since there are a trillion ways for me to be one of those, the total probability of experiencing winning is still a billion to one. To be more formal:

P("experiencing winning")=sum(P("winning"|"being me #n")P("being me #n")) =sum(P("winning" and "being me #n"))=10^12*10^-21=10^-9 since "being me #n" partitions the space.

Overall this means I:

• anticipate not winning at 5 sec.

• anticipate not winning at 15 sec.

• don't have super-psychic-anthropic powers

• don't see why anyone has an issue with this

Checking consistency just in case:

p("experience win after 15s") = p("experience win after 15s"|"experience win after >5s")p("experience win after 5s") + p("experience win after 15s"|"experience not-win >after 5s")p("experience not-win after 5s").

p("experience win after 15s") = (~1)*(10^-9) + (~0)(1-10^-9)=~10^-9=~p("experience win after 5s")

Additionally, I should note that the total amount of "people who are me who experience winning" will be 1 trillion at 5 sec. and exactly 1 at 15 sec. This is because those trillion "me"s must all have identical experiences for merging to work, meaning the merged copy only has one set of consistent memories of having won the lottery. I don't see this as a problem, honestly.