tmx comments on The Anthropic Trilemma - Less Wrong

24 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 27 September 2009 01:47AM

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Comment author: tmx 07 February 2013 03:32:18AM 0 points [-]

1) the probability of ending up in the set of winners is

1/billion

2) the probability of being (a specific) one of the trillion is

1/(b * t)

the probability of being a 2) given you are awake is

p(2 | awake) = P(awake | 2) * p(2) ------------------- p(awake)

 = 1 * 1E-21
---------
1
= very small