pengvado comments on Privileging the Hypothesis - Less Wrong

57 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 29 September 2009 12:40AM

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Comment author: pengvado 29 September 2009 07:59:01PM *  6 points [-]

There's nothing inherently wrong with data dredging. Considering all possible hypotheses and keeping the ones suggested by the data is just Solomonoff induction. It only becomes problematic if you don't have a consistent prior, e.g. if you keep the hypothesis with the greatest likelihood ratio rather than the greatest posterior.

Hypothesis-driven has its place in the human practice of science, because humans have a hard time computing a prior after having seen the data. But that's a problem with the humans, not with the math.

Comment author: steven0461 29 September 2009 08:08:54PM 4 points [-]

i.e. if you keep the hypothesis with the greatest likelihood ratio rather than the greatest posterior

...or if you believe everything that has p<.05.

Comment author: PhilGoetz 30 September 2009 12:11:38AM 0 points [-]

It only becomes problematic if you don't have a consistent prior, i.e. if you keep the hypothesis with the greatest likelihood ratio rather than the greatest posterior.

If that were true, you would never need to hold out a validation set.