This seems to open up the idea of 'logic games' a la confirmation bias: Eg: Likelihood of - *US invading China *China testing nukes in the Pacific *US invading because of China testing nukes in the Pacific

In fact, there's a lot of stuff from this site that could be compiled into a "Puzzles for people with High IQs" books, except if somebody from here made the book it would be more useful, and less arbitrary in what it considers to be the 'right' answers.