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wedrifid comments on Are you a Democrat singletonian, or a Republican singletonian? - Less Wrong
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... We are diverting a bit from 'any', 'any other' and 'any kind' here.
And yes, the only credible alternative to 1 and 2 would be 4 in those cases where the agent predicts their own singleton to foom first.
Well, I think any group would tend to consider any other group 'not transparent and reliable enough', given the extremely high stakes involved. A development effort that most people felt was open enough would be so open that there would effectively be no separate groups.
So, in any situation where the description of "one powerful group building a singleton and another group watching them" applies, I stand by my prediction.
How about if the figurehead made the effort to signal that he is too silly for a sophisticated body to consider a threat? After all, I'd sooner put plastic bottles of water on my roof than admit that some anime obsessed nerd was a bigger threat than me.