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Peter_de_Blanc comments on Anticipation vs. Faith: At What Cost Rationality? - Less Wrong
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No, they don't really believe it; their actions are severely suboptimal for that belief set. They might have a greater belief that they believe it, however.
Oh, come on. Show me a human whose actions aren't severely suboptimal for their belief set.
Fair point, but here the difference is the most obvious, if the professed beliefs accurately represent their internal predictive model of reality, which I claim it doesn't.