PhilGoetz comments on Anticipation vs. Faith: At What Cost Rationality? - Less Wrong
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Comments (105)
No, they don't really believe it; their actions are severely suboptimal for that belief set. They might have a greater belief that they believe it, however.
I understand the point about how people can "only believe they believe something," but the way you phrased it sounded like they are consciously faking it, and I think that is in most cases not true.