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Daniel_Burfoot comments on We're in danger. I must tell the others... - Less Wrong
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This is an interesting thought experiment. I submit that for many men, the probability is quite small, say on the order of 15% or 25%, whereas for most women it is 90-95%.
Edited: I originally wrote "for women it approaches unity".
What makes you suggest that?
All kinds of things - conspicuously, the far greater incarceration rate for men, and the far greater willingness of men to fight wars. Both crime and warfighting seem to involve assessments similar to the death vs. perfect life problem.