rwallace comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 October 2009 12:08AM

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Comment author: rwallace 14 October 2009 10:39:26AM 2 points [-]

+1 Interesting! I've put in a prediction... and also pressed the wrong button on somebody else's prediction (for which the time hasn't elapsed yet) and marked it judged right, hopefully clicking Unknown undoes that...

The advantage of a site like this having been brought to the attention of geeks is that there are at least a few predictions listed to which my answer isn't "how the heck would I know?" :)

Comment author: rwallace 14 October 2009 10:46:34AM 3 points [-]

Seems like a few other people have been doing the pressing the wrong button thing, if I'm now understanding the user interface correctly? I've tried setting some of those still in the future predictions to unknown, hopefully that's the right thing to do. If so, would it be possible to change the user interface to avoid this error?

Comment author: Emile 14 October 2009 02:53:36PM 5 points [-]

Same here - once I entered a percentage, I wasn't sure which button to press, I hesitated between "right" (meaning the percentage I was giving was my confidence that it was right) and "my 2 cents" (which I thought only applieds to when you entered a comment). I selected "right", which was wrong.

The interface needs a bit of polishing.

Comment author: ektimo 16 October 2009 06:13:17PM 0 points [-]

Me too. The interface for that was confusing enough that I ended up not submitting at all.