gwern comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 October 2009 12:08AM

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Comment author: Cyan 14 October 2009 02:02:27PM 11 points [-]

maintaining your will to keep on tracking yourself even if the results are discouraging, as they probably will be...

I predict with probability 0.95 that my 95% intervals will contain the quantity I'm estimating around 50% of the time.

Comment author: gwern 14 October 2009 02:49:29PM 3 points [-]

I see what you did there.