LauraABJ comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 October 2009 12:08AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (52)

Sort By: Best

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Cyan 14 October 2009 02:02:27PM 11 points [-]

maintaining your will to keep on tracking yourself even if the results are discouraging, as they probably will be...

I predict with probability 0.95 that my 95% intervals will contain the quantity I'm estimating around 50% of the time.

Comment author: LauraABJ 15 October 2009 08:22:54PM 0 points [-]

Hilarious.