Jack comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong

34 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 October 2009 12:08AM

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Comment author: thomblake 19 October 2009 08:39:48PM 0 points [-]

Interesting - by the time I checked this, it looks like there aren't any inconsistent estimates.

Comment author: Jack 19 October 2009 09:20:33PM 0 points [-]

Right now the later prediction has 9 points higher probability than the sooner prediction. I counted two or three cases of individual users posting higher probabilities for the later prediction. Unless they're 're really confident the first cryonic revival takes place during that decade they're making a huge mistake. My best explanation is that they just saw a farther off date and assumed a higher probability of everything...