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gwern comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong
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I have spent some time extracting bets and predictions from Long Bets under my account.
So far I have all open bets with fixed dates imported, and roughly a third of the predictions.
It would be nice if a bunch of LWers could go in and put down their own probabilities. It's true that most of them don't come due any time soon - looking at upcoming predictions I see the first Long Bet item coming up in 5 months, followed by 2 or 3 within half a year after that. But the more who use it, the more short-term predictions and the more useful. The rich get richer, etc.
I've finished importing all the sensible bets and predictions from LB. I suppose the next target is Wrong Tomorrow, and then I'll turn to Intrade.
(I see next to no contributions from LWers. This disappoints me; do we all think we are well-calibrated or what?)
Wrong Tomorrow turns out to be something like half or more expired predictions which haven't been judged (and only the moderators/admins can do that, so...). Imported the outstanding predictions faster than I expected, so that's done.
Next is Intrade and our 2010 predictions, unless anyone has other suggestions.