It's our intention to Open Source the PredictionBook code… and has been for at least six months, but we keep not quite getting around to it. It's also my intention to write a top level post about why I think PBook isn't getting much traffic (it being slow is only one reason).
Any one with a reputation on this site that wants access to the code before we get it open sourced is welcome to contact me directly. The code's on github.com and is written in Ruby on Rails.
(gwern, if you want access send me your promise that you'll behave responsibly and your github username.)
but we keep not quite getting around to it.
I know the feeling.
It's also my intention to write a top level post about why I think PBook isn't getting much traffic (it being slow is only one reason).
I have my own theories (mostly that people aren't very interested in truth-seeking, pace Hanson, and that the benefits are too long-term, cf. SRS flashcards), but that's just my perspective as a user.
gwern, if you want access send me your promise that you'll behave responsibly and your github username.
Do you mean access to the data? As I said, I'd like...
Our hosts at Tricycle Developments have created PredictionBook.com, which lets you make predictions and then track your calibration - see whether things you assigned a 70% probability happen 7 times out of 10.
The major challenge with a tool like this is (a) coming up with good short-term predictions to track (b) maintaining your will to keep on tracking yourself even if the results are discouraging, as they probably will be.
I think the main motivation to actually use it, would be rationalists challenging each other to put a prediction on the record and track the results - I'm going to try to remember to do this the next time Michael Vassar says "X%" and I assign a different probability. (Vassar would have won quite a few points for his superior predictions of Singularity Summit 2009 attendance - I was pessimistic, Vassar was accurate.)