Jayson_Virissimo comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (52)
O_o
Very funny, but to be fair, he would've given it a higher probability*, even if he might not have reinvented Laplace's law of succession and been able to give the sun rising a 1/1826250 chance of not rising.
* Remember, the empiricism vs rationalism debate could be summed up as 'is infinite certainty possible?'