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Jayson_Virissimo comments on PredictionBook.com - Track your calibration - Less Wrong
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Very funny, but to be fair, he would've given it a higher probability*, even if he might not have reinvented Laplace's law of succession and been able to give the sun rising a 1/1826250 chance of not rising.
* Remember, the empiricism vs rationalism debate could be summed up as 'is infinite certainty possible?'