CarlShulman comments on Information theory and FOOM - Less Wrong

6 Post author: PhilGoetz 14 October 2009 04:52PM

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Comment author: gwern 07 August 2011 04:30:05PM *  2 points [-]

In the first of several irresponsible assumptions I'm going to make, let's assume that the information evolved in time t is proportional to i = log(t), while the intelligence evolved is proportional to et = ee^i. I haven't done the math to support those particular functions; but I'm confident that they fit the data better than linear functions would.

This may be covered by the following assumption about 'spurts', but this doesn't seem to work for me.

If intelligence really could jump like that, shouldn't we expect to see that in humans already? For example, shouldn't we expect to see small mutations or genes with outsized effects on intelligence? Instead, we see that even a highly inbred population with many dozens of nasty genetic problems like the Ashkenazi only get 10 or 20 IQ points*, and we see a long-term stagnation in cranial capacity, and genetic surveys seem to (as far as I've heard) turn up hundreds or thousands of genetic variations weakly linked to small IQ increases. (I cover some related points in my article on evolution & drugs.) All of this makes intelligence look like it has a logarithmic relationship with diminishing returns.

* My understanding is that on a hypothetical 'absolute' scale of intelligence, as you get smarter, each IQ point corresponds to less and less 'actual' intelligence, due to the bell curve/relative ranking that IQ is - it's an ordinal scale, not a cardinal scale.

Comment author: CarlShulman 09 August 2011 06:04:36PM *  1 point [-]

My understanding is that on a hypothetical 'absolute' scale of intelligence, as you get smarter, each IQ point corresponds to less and less 'actual' intelligence, due to the bell curve/relative ranking that IQ is - it's an ordinal scale, not a cardinal scale.

In what sense? As you go to higher IQs each additional IQ point means a greater (multiplicative) difference in the rarity of individuals with that frequency. Studies like those of Benbow and Terman show sizable continuing practical impact of increasing IQ on earnings, patents, tenured academic positions, etc.

ETA: Thanks for the clarification.

Comment author: gwern 09 August 2011 06:48:42PM 1 point [-]

Because of the construction of the tests. As you go to higher points, each point represents fewer and fewer correctly answered questions. Matrix IQ tests can be mechanically generated by combining simple rules, and they show the same bell curve norms despite what look only like linear increases in number of rules or complexity.

And the Benbow and Terman studies and others do show practical impact, but they don't show a linear impact where each IQ point is as valuable as the previous, and they certainly do not show an increasing marginal returns where the next IQ point gives greater benefits than before!

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2011 07:11:40PM *  0 points [-]

Do you mean "at higher IQ values each additional point corresponds to less and less additional (expected) intelligence" or "at higher IQ values each additional point corresponds to less and less total intelligence"?

Comment author: gwern 09 August 2011 08:03:51PM 1 point [-]

I mean the former - diminishing returns in measured intelligence (IQ) versus actual intelligence.

(I definitely am not saying that IQ points are uncorrelated with actual intelligence at some point, or inversely correlated!)

Comment author: CarlShulman 09 August 2011 07:51:00PM 0 points [-]

I didn't thus misinterpret: my prior on the latter meaning is low.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 09 August 2011 07:53:44PM *  0 points [-]

(I corrected my comment before you replied, sorry for acting confused.)