Alicorn comments on The Value of Nature and Old Books - Less Wrong
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But what if a majority of people agrees on a change? How can we decide how large it must be to have its way? It's a troubling question for me because in political systems such decisions are usually pretty much arbitrary: why require a 70% supermajority vote and not 60% or 80%?
Unless the required supermajority is very near 100% (and has good reason to be so), I'm too afraid of the tyranny of the majority and would prefer a system where each voter actually controlled the proportion of nature that he or she is voting "for".
I acknowledge this problem, but it doesn't change my conclusion.
But they're not people. They're possibilities. They do not exist.
I accept the following reasoning: the future world will contain many new people no matter what I do. I prefer a future world that's nice for them. That makes perfect sense.
The problem for me comes when people imply that ownership of parts of nature (e.g., tracts of land) should be forbidden. For instance you said,
I don't accept that people who don't yet even exist are entitled to a piece of nature I'm using today (if I don't own it). I don't intend to die before these future people are born, so I'll have to share with them. The more new people are born, the smaller my remaining share - even if it's a time-share or some such instead of a literal piece of the property. I'm willing to share - after all I didn't create this land, so it shouldn't be mine exclusively - but only up to some limit.
If the world population is X, and the small country of Breedia invents a molecular manufacturing technology that lets them convert all their mountains into 10X small children, I hope they won't become entitled to nine-tenths of the world's resources. I'll feel sorry for the children and I'll do everything I can to find them a place to live that's not too much at the expense of existing people, including myself. I'll also vote for anyone proposing a singleton that would prevent the neighboring country of Multiplia from doing the same thing next year.
It's the nature of population that it grows until it encounters a limit - either of resources, or cultural. I hope that future humans will breed more in the presence of more resources, and less in the presence of less resources, but I don't fully trust this will happen.
Suppose the number and timing of children were limited only by the delay of nine months' pregnancy, and the costs of raising children were negligible. I expect the world population to rise rapidly and without limit in this scenario.
I would need to know much more about what you consider to be the "costs" of raising children (as they are presently) to address this scenario. For instance, if they still take nine months from conception to birth, do they also still take the same number of years from birth to adulthood? Parental attention per childhood is a cost, and one that you don't get to scale up for greater numbers of children indefinitely without fiddling with time.
I meant all the costs which come down to money. Parents would also be free to choose to pay for babysitters (or TVs, or nanny AIs) to reduce parenting time if they wish.
It's not at all obvious to me that, even if monetary cost per child approached zero, people would have all the children it was biologically feasible to have, specifically because of the bottleneck on parental attention (but also because many people don't want children, or want a smaller number for some non-money-related reason). I don't think a majority of choices about family size have much to do with money at all.
I didn't say that. I merely think that the (world average) birthrates would be well above sustainment level. Three children per family on average would be more than enough for a population explosion.
Unfortunately, if we have a future of many generations of biological humanity without significant resource constraints, memetic selection will make sure most people do want many children. This must happen as long as some people want many children and can teach most of their children to want the same.