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mlionson comments on David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation - Less Wrong
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I don't think his way of explaining it is any easier for a newcomer. It doesn't make sense unless and until you already have a firm grasp of the basis for Occam's razor. And if you know how to justify Occam's razor, you already understand why adding details penalizes the explanation's probability.
Furthermore, his idea can't be summarized as "good explanations are hard to vary". It's more like, "good explanations are hard to vary while preserving their predictions".
I do appreciate that you added a summary.
I don't think he is saying, "good explanations are hard to vary while preserving their predictions".
As described above the statement "Everyone just acts in his own interest" very easily preserves its predictive power in a multitude of situations. Indeed, the problem with it is that the statement preserves its predictive power in too many situations! The explanation is consistent with just about whatever happens, so one cannot design a test that makes one believe that the statement is certainly false. So it is too easy to vary and hence a bad explanation.