pengvado comments on Post retracted: If you follow expected utility, expect to be money-pumped - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (20)
Only if you have an infinite bankroll. Otherwise, there is some tiny but nonzero chance that you lose all your money and the player makes a huge profit. And for the player with the convex utility function, the utility of that outcome is enough to make the whole ensemble of gambles worthwhile.
Then if you extend that to the infinite case by putting the limit outside the expected utility calculation, you will find that the limit is nonnegative too. Or if you don't assume that the result in the infinite case is the limit of finite results, then you have different problems, but then who says the strategy in the infinite case is the same as the limit of finite strategies?
To pick a concave function at random, let U(x£) = log10(x) utilons. And let my bank account contain 10£ at the beginning of the experiment.
U(10£) = EU(9£+A+B) = 1u, so I pay 1£ for options A+B.
Assume WLOG that I'm considering option A first. EU(y+B) = .5*U(y) + .5*U(y+1£). Set that equal to 1u and solve for y: y=9.51249£. Thus I'm indifferent to selling option A for 0.51249£.
After doing so, I am then indifferent to selling option B for 0.48751£.
So I'm back to exactly 10£. No money pump.
Upvoted.