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CronoDAS comments on Open Thread: November 2009 - Less Wrong
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I'll go ahead and predict here that the Higgs boson will not be showing up. As best I can put the reason into words: I don't think the modern field of physics has its act sufficiently together to predict that a hitherto undetected quantum field is responsible for mass. They are welcome to prove me wrong.
(I'll also predict that the LHC will never actually run, but that prediction is (almost entirely) a joke, whereas the first prediction is not.)
Anyone challenging me to bet on the above is welcome to offer odds.
Well, the Standard Model hasn't been wrong yet. If you want to bet against it, I'll take you up on it.
I assert that the LHC will not establish the non-existence of the Higgs boson. Will you wager $20 at even odds on against that proposition?
I'll bet that the LHC will not establish existence. It's not clear to me what would count as establishing non-existence.
There are papers that establish upper bounds on the energy of the higgs boson,
http://arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9212305
If the LHC can make particles up to those energy bounds (I don't know and don't have the time to figure it out), and it can be run for sufficient time to make it very unlikely that one wouldn't be created. Then you could establish probable non-existence.