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taw comments on Open Thread: November 2009 - Less Wrong
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Intrade has market for Higgs boson.
Too thinly traded, deadline too soon, rules for what counts as "confirmation" too narrow given the deadline.
The market, unfortunately, is only through the end of next year; does anybody know whether all the relevant experiments are slated to be performed by then?
I'd like to unwind P(Find Higgs|LHC runs and does the tests) down to just P(Find Higgs) or some approximation thereof.
There are markets for further years, but have almost no activity, so I didn't link to them.