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taw comments on Open Thread: November 2009 - Less Wrong
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I'll go ahead and predict here that the Higgs boson will not be showing up. As best I can put the reason into words: I don't think the modern field of physics has its act sufficiently together to predict that a hitherto undetected quantum field is responsible for mass. They are welcome to prove me wrong.
(I'll also predict that the LHC will never actually run, but that prediction is (almost entirely) a joke, whereas the first prediction is not.)
Anyone challenging me to bet on the above is welcome to offer odds.
Intrade has market for Higgs boson.
Too thinly traded, deadline too soon, rules for what counts as "confirmation" too narrow given the deadline.
The market, unfortunately, is only through the end of next year; does anybody know whether all the relevant experiments are slated to be performed by then?
I'd like to unwind P(Find Higgs|LHC runs and does the tests) down to just P(Find Higgs) or some approximation thereof.
There are markets for further years, but have almost no activity, so I didn't link to them.