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Yorick_Newsome comments on Open Thread: November 2009 - Less Wrong
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Ah, that makes a lot more sense: I was looking at the probability from the viewpoint of my guess (i.e. heads) instead of just looking at the all outcomes equally (no privileged references guesses), if you take my meaning. I also differentiated confidence in my prediction from the chance of my prediction being correct. How I managed to do that, I have no idea. Thanks for the reply.
Well, maybe you were thinking about "how confident am I that this is a fair coin vs that it's biased toward heads vs that it's biased toward tails" which is a slightly different question.
Given how 'confidence' is used in a social context that differentiation would feel quite natural.