Yes, I know. But those were even odds. When someone makes a prediction unprompted, it suggests more confidence than that. (Well, unless they’re just testing what odds other people offer, but I don’t think that was the case here.) That is, it is possible that your inner censor for “don’t predict things that might prove wrong” didn’t trigger (maybe because you’ve trained yourself to ignore embarrassment about people’s opinion of you), but the censor for “don’t bet when you might be wrong” triggered without you noticing it.

In other words, it might be an indication of a difference between what you believe and what you think you believe, or even what you want to appear to believe :-)

(It might also be that you actualy thought the odds were 50:50, and anticipated others to offer much higher odds. How likely did you think it was at the time, anyway?)