Isn't that what it feels like when one rounds someone's response to a pre-existing image of "oh, the such-and-such mistake"?
So, how would you distinguish that, from the case where their response is making the such-and-such mistake?
The way I'd distinguish it, is to ask questions that would have different answers, depending on whether the person is making that mistake or not. I asked Eliezer those questions, and of the ones he answered, the answers were consistent with my model of the mistake.
Of course, there's always the possibility of confirmation bias... except that I also know what answers I'd have taken as disconfirming my hypothesis, which makes it at least a little less likely. (But I do know of more than one mechanism by which beliefs and behaviors are formed and maintained, and it would've been plausible -- albeit less probable -- that his evaluation could've been formed another way. And I'd have been perfectly okay with my hypothesis being wrong.)
See, I'm not pointing out what I believe to be a mistake because I think I'm smarter than Eliezer... it's because I'm constantly making the same mistake. We all do, because it's utterly trivial to make it, and really non-trivial to spot it. And if you haven't gotten an intuitive grasp of why and how that mistake comes into being (for example, if you insist it doesn't exist in the first place!), then it's hard to see why there's "no silver bullet" for reducing the complexity of developing "rationality" in people.
So, how would you distinguish that, from the case where their response is making the such-and-such mistake?
If my interlocutor is someone who might well have thoughts that don't fit into my schemas, I might be suspicious enough of my impression that they were making one of my standard cached example-mistakes that I'd:
Make a serious effort at original seeing, and make sure my model of the such-and-such mistake is really the best way to organically understand the situation in front of me; and then
Describe my schema for the such-and-such mistake (in gen
To paraphrase the Black Belt Bayesian: Behind every exciting, dramatic failure, there is a more important story about a larger and less dramatic failure that made the first failure possible.
If every trace of religion was magically eliminated from the world tomorrow, then—however much improved the lives of many people would be—we would not even have come close to solving the larger failures of sanity that made religion possible in the first place.
We have good cause to spend some of our efforts on trying to eliminate religion directly, because it is a direct problem. But religion also serves the function of an asphyxiated canary in a coal mine—religion is a sign, a symptom, of larger problems that don't go away just because someone loses their religion.
Consider this thought experiment—what could you teach people that is not directly about religion, which is true and useful as a general method of rationality, which would cause them to lose their religions? In fact—imagine that we're going to go and survey all your students five years later, and see how many of them have lost their religions compared to a control group; if you make the slightest move at fighting religion directly, you will invalidate the experiment. You may not make a single mention of religion or any religious belief in your classroom, you may not even hint at it in any obvious way. All your examples must center about real-world cases that have nothing to do with religion.
If you can't fight religion directly, what do you teach that raises the general waterline of sanity to the point that religion goes underwater?
Here are some such topics I've already covered—not avoiding all mention of religion, but it could be done:
But to look at it another way—
Suppose we have a scientist who's still religious, either full-blown scriptural-religion, or in the sense of tossing around vague casual endorsements of "spirituality".
We now know this person is not applying any technical, explicit understanding of...
When you consider it—these are all rather basic matters of study, as such things go. A quick introduction to all of them (well, except naturalistic metaethics) would be... a four-credit undergraduate course with no prerequisites?
But there are Nobel laureates who haven't taken that course! Richard Smalley if you're looking for a cheap shot, or Robert Aumann if you're looking for a scary shot.
And they can't be isolated exceptions. If all of their professional compatriots had taken that course, then Smalley or Aumann would either have been corrected (as their colleagues kindly took them aside and explained the bare fundamentals) or else regarded with too much pity and concern to win a Nobel Prize. Could you—realistically speaking, regardless of fairness—win a Nobel while advocating the existence of Santa Claus?
That's what the dead canary, religion, is telling us: that the general sanity waterline is currently really ridiculously low. Even in the highest halls of science.
If we throw out that dead and rotting canary, then our mine may stink a bit less, but the sanity waterline may not rise much higher.
This is not to criticize the neo-atheist movement. The harm done by religion is clear and present danger, or rather, current and ongoing disaster. Fighting religion's directly harmful effects takes precedence over its use as a canary or experimental indicator. But even if Dawkins, and Dennett, and Harris, and Hitchens should somehow win utterly and absolutely to the last corner of the human sphere, the real work of rationalists will be only just beginning.