SilasBarta comments on News: Improbable Coincidence Slows LHC Repairs - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
Yes, hindsight bias should be taken into account. But the cases differ in that you have to have detailed technical knowledge to understand why O-rings can fail and why that failure would matter.
In constrast, most people, even without any technical knowledge, already know to check how they need to protect expensive stuff from nature.
So, how many baguette pieces have you had to fish out of your recycling bin lately? Note that the article states the piece was found inside the building.