= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
taw comments on Practical rationality in surveys - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (11)
Wrong. It means that the researcher defined a class of results such that the class had less than a 5% chance of occurring if the null hypothesis were true, and that the actual outcome fell into this class.
There are all sorts of things that can go wrong with that, but, even leaving all those aside, it doesn't mean there's a 5% chance the results are wrong. Suppose you're investigating psychic powers, and that the journals have (as is usually the case!) a heavy publication bias toward positive results. Then the journal will be full of statistically significant results and they will all be wrong.
I'm confused by your remark. "5% chance of false positive" obviously means P(positive results|null hypothesis true)=5%, P(null hypothesis true|positive results) is subjective and has no particular meaningful value, so I couldn't have talked about that.