Nick_Tarleton comments on Consequences of arbitrage: expected cash - Less Wrong
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Comments (27)
I don't need to price (contract B, when I already have contract A) the same as (contract A, when I have nothing).
I haven't done the math to see if this solves the problem or not – if the two willingnesses to pay have to sum to 20000, for any increasing utility function – but there must be a solution; expected utility shouldn't ever produce circular preferences.