MichaelVassar comments on Less Wrong Q&A with Eliezer Yudkowsky: Ask Your Questions - Less Wrong
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Mine would be slightly less than 10% by 2030, slightly greater than 85% by 2080 conditional on a general continuity of our civilization between now and 2080, most likely method of origination depends on how far we look out. More brain inspired methods tend to come later and to be more likely absolutely.