MichaelVassar comments on Less Wrong Q&A with Eliezer Yudkowsky: Ask Your Questions - Less Wrong

16 Post author: MichaelGR 11 November 2009 03:00AM

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Comment author: DanArmak 11 November 2009 10:47:53AM 18 points [-]

Could you give an uptodate estimate of how soon non-Friendly general AI might be developed? With confidence intervals, and by type of originator (research, military, industry, unplanned evolution from non-general AI...)

Comment author: MichaelVassar 13 November 2009 05:28:45AM 2 points [-]

Mine would be slightly less than 10% by 2030, slightly greater than 85% by 2080 conditional on a general continuity of our civilization between now and 2080, most likely method of origination depends on how far we look out. More brain inspired methods tend to come later and to be more likely absolutely.