komponisto comments on Less Wrong Q&A with Eliezer Yudkowsky: Ask Your Questions - Less Wrong

16 Post author: MichaelGR 11 November 2009 03:00AM

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Comment author: RobinHanson 15 November 2009 02:07:50PM 3 points [-]

Cryonics is also a good case to analyze what an outsider should think, given what they can see. But of course "they laughed at Galileo too" is hardly a strong argument for contrarian views. Yes sometimes contrarians are right - the key question is how outside observers, or self-doubting insiders, can tell when contrarians are right.

Comment author: komponisto 15 November 2009 03:39:48PM *  3 points [-]

Outsiders can tell when contrarians are right by assessing their arguments, once they've decided the contrarians are worth listening to. This in turn can be ascertained through the usual means, such as association with credentialed or otherwise high-status folks. So for instance, you are affiliated with a respectable institution, Bostrom with an even more respectable institution, and the fact that EY was co-blogging at Overcoming Bias thus implied that if your and Bostrom's arguments were worth listening to, so were his. (This is more or less my own story; and I started reading Overcoming Bias because it appeared on Scott Aaronson's blogroll.)

Hence it seems that Yudkowsky's affiliations are already strong enough to signal competence to those academics interested in the subjects he deals with, in which case we should expect to see detailed, inside-view analyses from insiders who disagree. In the absence of that, we have to conclude that insiders either agree or are simply unaware -- and the latter, if I understand correctly, is a problem whose solution falls more under the responsibility of people like Vassar rather than Yudkowsky.

Comment author: RobinHanson 15 November 2009 04:33:56PM 1 point [-]

No for most people it is infeasible to evaluate who is right by working through the details of the arguments. The fact that Eliezer wrote on a blog affiliated with Oxford is very surely not enough to lead one to expect detailed rebuttal analyses from academics who disagree with him.

Comment author: komponisto 15 November 2009 05:14:06PM *  4 points [-]

Well, for most people on most topics it is infeasible to evaluate who is right, period. At the end of the day, some effort is usually required to obtain reliable information. Even surveys of expert opinion may be difficult to conduct if the field is narrow and non-"traditional". As for whatever few specialists there may be in Singularity issues, I think you expect too little of them if you don't think Eliezer currently has enough status to expect rebuttals.