jimmy comments on Test Your Calibration! - Less Wrong

19 Post author: alyssavance 11 November 2009 10:03PM

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Comment author: jimmy 12 November 2009 07:06:13PM 1 point [-]

If anyone is thinking about creating their own, I would suggest questions with numerical answers so you can give upper and lower bounds of varying confidence, rather than trying to pick your confidence on a binary question and try to force binning or do some sort of filtering.

Also, this lets you give several probability estimates for each question.

Comment author: aretae 13 November 2009 05:36:32PM 1 point [-]

Douglas Hubbard writes on the topic of calibration as well. He focuses on RW application of this stuff, and calibration is clearly a part of that.

His 1st book: http://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-ebook/dp/B001BPE8ZQ/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1258133710&sr=8-3

His site: http://www.hubbardresearch.com/dotnetnuke/

Comment author: gwern 04 July 2011 12:53:59AM 0 points [-]

I found How to Measure Anything pretty interesting in its thorough application of calibration and Fermi calculation to all sorts of problems, although I didn't find the digressions into Excel very useful. Definitely recommended if you don't already have the mental knack for Fermi stuff.