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cousin_it comments on Frequentist Statistics are Frequently Subjective - Less Wrong
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Since OBLW went off Typepad, I don't have any simple way to dump files somewhere. Got a suggestion?
EDIT: Thanks Cyan.
http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/User:Eliezer_Yudkowsky/CodeDump
(Note: Ugly code and if you want to actually check anything you should rewrite your own before looking at mine to minimize chance of error propagation.)
It's a shame it took me so long to stumble on this post. Just wrote my own program to check your result, without looking at yours, and it seems you're right. In fact it seems to be between 30% and 40%.