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wedrifid comments on Agree, Retort, or Ignore? A Post From the Future - Less Wrong
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I agree about the issue of unresolved arguments. Was agreement reached and that''s why the debate stopped? No way to tell.
Particularly the epic AI-foom debate between Robin and Eliezer on OB, over whether AI or brain simulations were more likely to dominate the next century, was never clearly resolved with updated probability estimates from the two participants. In fact probability estimates were rare in general. Perhaps a step forward would be for disputants to publicize their probability estimates and update them as the conversation proceeds.
BTW sorry to see that linkrot continues to be a problem in the future.
Would that be desirable? I know, for example, that when reading Robin's posts on that topic I often updated away from Robin's position (weak arguments from a strong debater is evidence that there are not stronger arguments). Given this possibility, having public numbers diverging in such a way would be rather dramatic and decidedly favour dishonesty.
In general there are just far too many signalling reasons to avoid having 'probability estimates' public. Very few discussions even here are sufficiently rational as to make those numbers beneficial.
When your estimates are tracked (which was the purpose of predictionbook.com [disclaimer: financial interest]) it becomes much harder to signal with them without blowing your publicly visible calibration.
It does. Of course, given that I was primed with the 'AI-foom' debate I found the thought of worrying what people will think of your calibration a little amusing. :)