taw comments on How to test your mental performance at the moment? - Less Wrong
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I cannot, or at least until it gets to really extreme levels, and not reliably in any case.
My sleepiness is not terribly correlated with my levels sleep deprivation - this could be taken to ridiculous levels back when I tried Provigil, as I didn't feel sleepy or tired or impaired in any way, after weeks of sleeping just a couple of hours a day, even though my performance suffered massively (as verified retrospectively by svn logs and such), and got back to high levels as soon as I slept it over.
Normally it's not as extreme, but significant drop in performance happens many hours before I feel sleepy or tired, and can usually be fixed by a short 1-2h nap. It's even worse, as I don't know how sleepy I am - often I know I need some sleep, but my track record of predicting if it will be 1-2h nap or a full 8h sleep is hardly better than random. People with more regular 24h activity cycles probably don't have this problem as much.