CronoDAS comments on How to test your mental performance at the moment? - Less Wrong
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Unless I'm actually nodding off, I can't tell the difference, at all. To paraphrase Paul Graham, one of the symptoms of bad judgment is believing that you have good judgment.
Do you notice any subjective difference from caffeine? Sometimes just the act of trying to remember what some distinct mental state "is like" can give you a handle on your current state.
Along the same lines, another fuzzy measure I've found is the ease with which I can recall what being really effective and flow-ish feels like. The further I am from that state, the more difficult it is to relate to or hold in mind the memory of it.
Caffeine makes me jittery. I generally avoid drinking it. (I've also never consumed any substantial amount of alcohol, either.)