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cousin_it comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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I think taw's problem is just a case of the more general and simple problem of what kind of similarity is required for induction?.
And it's unwise to use political issues as case studies of unsolved philosophical problems.
I think you're completely right, this is a special case of the problem of induction. The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy has a wonderfully exhaustive article about it that also discusses subjective Bayesianism at length. Among other things, that article offers a simple recommendation for taw's original problem: intersect your proposed reference classes to get a smaller and more relevant reference class.