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MichaelVassar comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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You can always look at the argument at an object level carefully enough to figure out which components fit into each category. That's not too difficult.
Also, the cornucopians haven't been right either IMHO, for the last 40 years. Rather, the last 40 years has been the age of "things will stay just the same as they are today" being a much better predictor than cornucopian or doomsday predictions, at least for people unlike us for whom the internet doesn't count as much of a cornucopia.
"things will stay just the same as they are today" would be a horrible horrible predictor for the last 40 years.
Check gapminder 1969 to 2009 for the poorest end how drastic and cornucopian the changes were for most of them. For the rich end, Internet, mobiles, and other wonderful technology counts very much as cornucopia.