MichaelVassar comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong

26 Post author: taw 25 November 2009 07:41PM

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Comment author: MichaelVassar 26 November 2009 04:45:47PM 0 points [-]

Agreed with the first part and with the heuristic, but taw is using the possibility of politicization as an element of reference class membership. Honestly, I wouldn't even consider global warming to be a "political issue". The science seems completely trivial to understand at the object level.

Comment author: DanArmak 26 November 2009 05:13:48PM *  5 points [-]

The logic used and the predictions made are trivial. But the underlying facts and observations have been (politically, I presume) called into question. For instance in the recent CRU possibly-scandal, see Eric Raymond saying CRU published fake data and Willis Eschenbach describing how the CRU illegally denied FOIA requests for their weather data and even threatened to destroy them to prevent others from trying to replicate their studies.

Because this issue is so heavily politicized, I for one have no clear idea of the real extent of GW danger.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 27 November 2009 06:16:31PM 4 points [-]

Honestly, I wouldn't even consider global warming to be a "political issue". The science seems completely trivial to understand at the object level.

I'd be shocked if it is.