SilasBarta comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong

26 Post author: taw 25 November 2009 07:41PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (90)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: SilasBarta 26 November 2009 09:49:15PM *  5 points [-]

Saying CO2 is a problem is bound to become much more political. How does that have any effect on the science? It doesn't.

Of course it does. Science is predicated on scientists practicing honestly. If scientists deliberately suppress disconfirmatory data, then peer review and reproducibility constraints won't mean anything. (And no I'm not addressing climatology here, just making a general point.)

This does not mean you must assign a low probability to the science. It just means that this particular feature attenuates the odds you assign to it.

Remember: The fact that a theory is good (high probability) does not mean everything about it must be evidence of its credibility!