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taw comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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"things will stay just the same as they are today" would be a horrible horrible predictor for the last 40 years.
Check gapminder 1969 to 2009 for the poorest end how drastic and cornucopian the changes were for most of them. For the rich end, Internet, mobiles, and other wonderful technology counts very much as cornucopia.