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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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http://lesswrong.com/lw/vz/the_weak_inside_view/
Is there any evidence that in cases that where neither "outside view" nor "strong inside view" can be applied, "weak inside view" is at least considerably better than pure chance? I have strong doubts about it.
Yes, it would be good to have a clearer data set of topics at dates, the views suggested by different styles of analysis, and what we think now about who was right. I'm pretty skeptical about this weak inside view claim, but will defer to some more systematic data. Of course that is my suggesting we take an outside view to evaluating this claim about which view is more reliable.
If I may attempt to summarize the link: Eliezer maintains that, while the quantitative inside view is likely to fail in cases where the underlying causes are not understood or planning biases are likely to be in effect, the outside view cannot be expected to work when the underlying causes undergo sufficiently severe alterations. Rather, he proposes what he calls the "weak inside view" - an analysis of underlying causes noting the most extreme of changes and stating qualitatively their consequences.