If I may attempt to summarize the link: Eliezer maintains that, while the quantitative inside view is likely to fail in cases where the underlying causes are not understood or planning biases are likely to be in effect, the outside view cannot be expected to work when the underlying causes undergo sufficiently severe alterations. Rather, he proposes what he calls the "weak inside view" - an analysis of underlying causes noting the most extreme of changes and stating qualitatively their consequences.