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taw comments on Contrarianism and reference class forecasting - Less Wrong
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Is there any evidence that in cases that where neither "outside view" nor "strong inside view" can be applied, "weak inside view" is at least considerably better than pure chance? I have strong doubts about it.
Yes, it would be good to have a clearer data set of topics at dates, the views suggested by different styles of analysis, and what we think now about who was right. I'm pretty skeptical about this weak inside view claim, but will defer to some more systematic data. Of course that is my suggesting we take an outside view to evaluating this claim about which view is more reliable.